El premio nobel de economía 2004, Finn Kydland, ha estado en Lima gracias a una invitación del CIES. Entre las muchas cosas interesantes que dijo, mencionó un proyecto en el que participó, referido a América Latina, La Consulta de San José, parte del Copenhagen Consensus Center. En ese proyecto se convocó a nueve expertos (entre ellos Kydland) para que discutan qué hacer frente a los diez problemas más importantes de la región. Otro grupo de expertos preparó papers con propuestas de solución, y otro grupo con críticas y propuestas alternativas. Se pidió al grupo de los nueve que eligieran las mejores soluciones, en términos "costo-efectivas". Al final, las cinco recomendaciones principales fueron:Top priority was given to Early Childhood Development programs. These are interventions that improve the physical, intellectual and social development of children early in their life. The interventions range from growth monitoring, daycare services, preschool activities, improved hygiene and health services to parenting skills. Besides improving children’s welfare directly, the panel concluded these programs create further benefits for family members, releasing women and older siblings to work outside the home or to further their own education. Evidence shows that the benefits are substantially higher than the costs. Promoting early childhood development is a regional solution that provides both immediate and long-term benefits.
Improving Fiscal Rules was generally seen as a great opportunity to improve the budget process within many countries in Latin America. Consolidating the budget process through procedural rules that would set structural deficit targets and limit deficits, spending and debt levels, and increase budget transparency would help avoid insolvency and excess spending in good times. At a low cost, this could potentially increase nations’ growth rate substantially.
Next on the panel’s list was Increased Investment in Infrastructure, Including Maintenance. The panel found that the region under-invests in infrastructure. Improving roads, seaport, water, sanitation, electricity and telecommunication would considerably stimulate growth. Boosting infrastructure and improving maintenance was found to yield a very high return on investment, while also providing and increasing access to markets and thus generating more prosperity.
The panel found that idea of establishing independent Policy and Program Evaluation Agencies very promising. An independent (public or private) and possibly international agency should provide evaluation and cost-benefit analysis to monitor social conditions and government programs over time. Between nations, the agencies should share information on effective policies. This would ensure more effective programs are prioritized by both policy makers and the public.
The panel also recommended Conditional Cash Transfer programs to provide monthly cash payments to poor households conditioned on parents sending their children to school, health clinics etc. The panel found that this is a well proven way to permanently reduce poverty. Furthermore, the panel found that conditional cash transfers could address several different problem areas such as poverty, inequality, and inadequate health and education, especially if adapted to local conditions.
Toda la información la pueden ver acá, especialmente recomendable para quienes se preguntan qué proyectos concretos podrían implementarse para solucionar los problemas del país:
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=903
De otro lado, para los colegas: uno de los diez problemas principales es el de la democracia en la región. Se le encargó a Mark Jones escribir el paper con el diagnóstico y las propuestas de solución. El texto de Jones está acá, y me parece muy cuerdo:
"Democracy in Latin America, Challenges and Solutions: Political Party and Party System Institutionalization and Women's Legislative Representation"
http://copenhagenconsensus.com/Files/Filer/CC%20LAC/CCLAC%20SP/Democracy_Jones_SP_Final.pdf
En su presentación en el CIES, Kydland dijo que, según su opinión, las recomendaciones para enfrentar los problemas de la democracia deberían estar entre las diez primeras (puesto ocho, específicamente) de la lista de prioridades. Para pensarlo.
Foto:
http://www.ucsb.edu/nobel/kydland.shtml
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